“I’m guessing that the number one question you have for me is are we going to experience recession? And if so, when and how severe will that recession be?” said Mark Zandi, chief economist and cofounder of Moody’s Analytics. “There’s a lot of talk about recession,” he said. “In fact, in the 30-plus years that I’ve been a professional economist, I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many people so pessimistic about the economy going forward.”
Some good news, potentially.
A healthy healthcare industry is key to keeping inflation down and avoiding recession, Zandi said. Despite workforce challenges and cost pressures, he’s optimistic AI and automation can help boost productivity.
“I’m going to make the case that, while the next 12 to 18 months are going to be difficult ones – and I think it’s important not to be Pollyannaish about what’s ahead, I think we have quite a chance to get through without an outright economic downturn.”
Economists, when they think about the future, are also looking at history, said Zandi.
“And historically, when the economy has been struggling with high inflation, and clearly we’ve been struggling with that, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates aggressively to combat that inflation, to try to slow the economy’s growth rate, to quell the inflationary pressures, when that’s happened in the past, recession often ensues.”
But it’s not inevitable. Read more.
